NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions

The NBA playoffs begin on Saturday with several marquee matchups: Don Nelson and his Warriors are squaring off with his old squad, the Mavericks; Vince Carter is going up against the team he practically built, the Toronto Raptors; and the Lakers enter into a rematch of last year’s thrilling series against Suns.

While the NBA playoffs are, indeed, considered much more predictable than the NHL; I have decided to measure my well-researched and somewhat opinionated predictions against those of a mindless 2001 Canadian quarter. I do, agreeably, take risks with a few of my picks, but I’m hoping that I can still come up on top against the heads or tails approach.

Note:the higher seed was always “heads” and the lower seed was always “tails.” The coin was flipped until one side achieved a total of four wins — each win counting as one symbolic and predictive win for the team it represented.

Eastern Conference
(1) Detroit vs. (8) Orlando
This is a David and Goliath battle that David won’t win. The Pistons are simply too good and too experienced to not dominate the Orlando Magic.

A minor subplot might be the fact that Grant Hill is going up against his former team; you know, the one that he could actually put up 20 ppg for while also playing more than 70 games a season. However, this plot and story will end rather quickly as Orlando’s inexperience will shine through.

The Pistons were able to sweep the season series 4-0; and should do so in this series in an even more convincing manner. The Pistons are quite simply favored in nearly every position on the court, with the possible exception of youngster Dwight Howard. Howard will do his best He-man impersonation, but will be thoroughly harassed by Rasheed Wallace all series long. He’ll probably even be able to put up good numbers against Detroit, but it still doesn’t matter. They still won’t come close in this series.
Chad says: Detroit in 4.
Coin says: Detroit in 5.

(2) Cleveland vs. (7) Washington
In last year’s first round matchup, the Cavaliers were able to beat the Wizards in six games. That was with Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler.

This year, the Wizards are literally limping their way into the playoffs and will be literally limping out almost as fast. Antawn Jamison has to absolutely dominate if his team wants a chance at taking the series to the length it went last year.

LeBron James will be looking to build on his resume and the Cavaliers will be looking to do a bit more damage this year than they did in the 2006 playoffs, where they came up 18 points short in Game 7 of the Conference Semifinals against the Detroit Pistons.

This year, the Cavaliers will have lots of time to prepare for that second round and the Wizards will have lots of time to heal.
Chad says: Cleveland in 5.
Coin says: Cleveland in 6.

(3) Toronto vs. (6) New Jersey
The last time the Raptors made the playoffs, Vince Carter had knee pains that kept him out of their first round loss to the Pistons. This time, his knees are just fine, but he’s on the opposing bench looking to keep the Raptors out of the second round again.

Christ Bosh and the reconstructed Raptors have put together a remarkable season, putting together the most improved record and winning their division title under the guidance of Bryan Colangelo. The Raptors, however, received late-season scares with a season-ending injury to Jorge Garbajosa and appendix surgery for Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani, however, returned in the final game of the season, putting up 17 points in 27 minutes and declaring himself ready for the playoffs. The Raptors will be relying on the rookie to keep the pressure off of Bosh. They’ll need multiple scoring options if they are going to dismantle the Nets.

The Nets are led in scoring by Carter, but have Richard Jefferson and Jason Kidd providing experienced scoring options to help balance their attack. Carter, though, will be looking to be the main man most of the way as he makes it his personal mission to beat his former team. If Carter hogs the ball, the Nets will fall. If they spread the ball around, however, they have a good chance of taking the series. At least that’s what the coin thinks.
Chad says: Toronto in 6.
Coin says: New Jersey in 7.

(4) Miami vs. (5) Chicago
Miami might be the higher seed, but the Bulls have the home-court advantage.

Chicago will be looking for revenge after falling to the eventual champs in six games last year. This year, however, the Bulls find themselves much more ready for the task. The offseason signing of Ben Wallace was meant to help the Bulls beat Shaq and the Heat; and beat them they have. The Bulls have taken three of four games during the season, but one must remember that the playoffs is a completely different beast. Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, and Ben Gordon will have to provide much of the scoring punch for these Bulls; and they’ll have to figure out a way to stop Dwyane Wade, a threat that caused many problems in the series last year.

Wade, however, doesn’t seem ready to pose as many problems for the Bulls this time around. Coming off a serious shoulder injury, Wade has only been able to put up 14.6 ppg in the five games since his return. It’s hard, however, to measure the will of a champion; and these Heat are the reigning champions of the NBA. Don’t expect them to go down without a fight, but expect them to go down nonetheless.
Chad says: Chicago in 7.
Coin says: Chicago in 6.

Western Conference
(1) Dallas vs. (8) Golden State
The Mavericks have put up one of the greatest regular-season records in NBA history, winning 65 of their 82 games. They could have had 68, however, if they knew how to beat the Golden State Warriors.

The Mavericks are led by MVP candidate Dirk Nowitzki and his experienced sidekicks: Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and Jerry Stackhouse. These (almost) same Mavericks have proven that they can dominate in the playoffs by sweeping Memphis, knocking down the Spurs in seven, and pushing through the Suns in six last year. They came up short against the Heat, however, when it mattered most. This year Cuban will be expecting even more, and more he will get.

More competition, that is.

If the Mavericks are the Superman of the Western Conference, then the Golden State Warriors can be labeled as Kryptonite.

The Warriors have won all three games against the Mavericks this season: a three-point victory in Dallas and two blowout wins at home (one coming while the Mavericks rested their starters). They also took three of four last against the Mavs last season, without the genius of Don Nelson behind the bench. If anybody knows how to solve Dallas, it is Nelson, the man who practically invented the Mavericks success. Baron Davis and Jason Richardson will be relied on heavily. Stephen Jackson, Monta Ellis, and Al Harrington will also need to step up, however, if the Warriors want a chance to pull off the first-round shocker. I think they will.
Chad says: Golden State in 6.
Coin says: Golden State in 6.

(2) Phoenix vs. (7) L.A. Lakers
Last year, the Lakers gave the Suns quite a scare, going up 3-1 in the first round series before eventually folding to Steve Nash and company in seven. This year, they’ll also have to deal with Amare Stoudemire, as well.

The Lakers were led, as always, by the all-around efforts of Kobe Bryant. Bryant accomplished one of the most amazing feats in NBA history by scoring at least 50 points in four straight games (225 combined). He does have a decent supporting cast of Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, and the promising Andrew Bynum. However, everybody knows that Kobe is the only factor that matters for the Lakers’ success.

The strange thing, however, is that the Lakers’ only win against the Suns this season came with Bryant nursing a knee injury.

The Suns have dominated the season series with Kobe in the lineup, winning all three games by an average of seven points per contest. They, of course, are led by two-time MVP Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, and the ever difficult defense of Raja Bell. Leandro Barbosa also stepped up his game this season, chipping in 18.1 ppg.

The Lakers will fight, much like they did last year, but the Suns will prevail.
Chad says: Phoenix in 6
Coin says: Phoenix in 4

(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Denver
When the Nuggets traded for Allen Iverson, they were thinking about success. The Spurs, however, didn’t need to make any changes to an already proven core.

Last year, Carmelo was unable to lead the Nuggets through the first round matchup against the L.A. Clippers. This year, he faces a much more difficult task, the San Antonio Spurs, but he has the help of Allen Iverson. Since becoming a Nugget, Iverson has had to adapt his game to suit the Nuggets needs. Many see a potential alpha-dog struggle between ‘Melo and Iverson as unavoidable, I see it as acceptable. When the game is on the line, who do you guard? Carmelo is one of the most proven clutch scorers in the game while Allen Iverson is one of the most dominant scorers, period. The only difficulty for the Nuggets, however, will be getting the “game on the line” against these Spurs.

The Spurs won the season series 2-1, with the only loss coming in a meaningless battle of the reserves on the final day of the NBA season. In their previous meeting, they were able to hold A.I. to 9 points and ‘Melo a mere 15 and in the game before that they held off the valiant 33-point effort by Iverson to still win 92-83 (though Anthony was not in the lineup). The Spurs, to say the least, are playoff proven.

San Antonio has won the NBA championship three times since 1999 (1999, 2003, 2005) and since then, only one series was lost to a non-eventual Western Conference champ (2000). Because of their experience, they will be able to overcome the Nuggets, albeit in a very difficult series.
Chad says: San Antonio in 6.
Coin says: Denver in 5.

(4) Utah vs. (5) Houston
The last time the Utah Jazz had such a high seed for the playoffs, they were led by John Stockton and the Mailman, Karl Malone (2001). This time, however, they’ll be looking for the combo of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer to deliver.

The Utah Jazz are coming off their best season in recent years and have plenty of hope for the playoffs. Boozer emerged as a dominant force in the Western Conference, while Mehmet Okur has been able to hold his own down low, as well (17.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg). The Jazz won 51 games without much contribution from marquee player, Andrei Kirilenko. They’ll need Kirilenko to step up, however, if they are going to be able to stop T-Mac and the Rockets.

Utah has the higher seed and won the season series 3-1, but the Houston Rockets were able to pull off home-court advantage.

With 52 wins, the Houston Rockets were able to put together their best season since drafting Yao Ming in 2002. Either Yao Ming or Tracy McGrady could have emerged as MVP candidates if it weren’t for injuries. Yao averaged 25 ppg, 9. 4rpg, and 2 blocks over 48 games. Tracy McGrady, however, was the bigger contributor to the Rockets season, averaging 24.6 ppg, 6.5 apg, and 5.3 rpg, while carrying the Rockets on his back (which is susceptible to injury) with Yao out of the lineup.

With both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming healthy, the Utah Jazz have their work cut out for them. They will fight hard, but come up short in the closest series of the first round.
Chad says: Houston in 7.
Coin says: Houston in 7.

—This article was originally published at Sports Central on April 20, 2007—

NHL Playoffs: First Round Predictions

The Carolina Hurricane have joined the Pittsburgh Steelers in the “champ to chump” category, winning the Stanley Cup last season while failing to even make the playoffs this year. Because of this, and the fact that the NHL playoffs are arguably the least predictable playoff in professional sports, the race to the cup will be a wide-open battle between 16 teams who refuse to go gently into the good summer.

As recent years have shown us, the NHL playoffs really are “anybody’s game.” The seventh-seeded Calgary Flames made a run to the finals two seasons ago and last year the eighth-seeded Edmonton Oilers pushed the Hurricane to the brink.

While my predictions are just that, “predictions,” they do take into account the head-to-head success rates of the teams during the regular season, team playoff experience, goalie readiness, and numerous other factors that will contribute to the success of any given club. While all these are important factors in determining a winner, nothing guarantees success in the grueling NHL playoffs.

After a long season filled with ups and downs, we can finally buckle up for the most exciting time of the year, the Stanley Cup playoffs. Get ready, hockey fans, because we’re in for a wild ride…

Eastern Conference

Buffalo (1) vs. New York Islanders (8)

In one of the wildest games of the year, because of what was at stake and who they were playing against, the Toronto Maple Leafs pulled off a 6-5 victory by knocking off their biggest rivals, the Montreal Canadiens. If the Habs had won, then both the Maple Leafs and the New York Islanders would have been eliminated, but they never.

The Habs loss provided a sense of hope for the surprise contenders from New York. All they needed was a win in New Jersey and they’d be guaranteed the eight seed. The Devils, however, had won the six previous games between these division rivals, though they never provided Toronto with any favors by resting Martin Brodeur in the make-or-break game for the Islanders.

Led by Wade Dubielewicz, the young AHL call-up goaltender who has been filling in valiantly for starter Rick DiPietro, the Islanders pulled off a 3-2 shootout victory against the Devils after allowing the Devils to tie the game with one second remaining in the third. If the Islanders didn’t win they would have been sent home, but Dubielewicz stepped up big with a poke-check on Sergei Brylin, New Jersey’s final shooter, to save the game and the season.

Dubielewicz won four of the five games he started and posted an incredible .929 SV% along that stretch while consistently coming up big when it mattered the most. Although he almost gave the season away with the late goal to the Devils, he more than redeemed himself in the shootout. The uncertainty remains for the Islanders heading into the playoffs, however, on whether DiPietro will be back in time or whether “Dubie” will continue to lead the team as he did in the final week of the season.

Whoever is in net, however, won’t have an easy time against the Buffalo Sabres.

The Sabres won the season series against the Islanders 3-1 and will be backstopped by Ryan Miller who led the team to the Eastern Conference finals last year.

Buffalo was the only team all season to score more than 300 goals and have been able to produce regardless of the many injuries that have plagued the team all season. The team is healthy, however, entering into the first round series with the Islanders and will be an overwhelming squad for the Islanders to try and defend. All-Star Game MVP Daniel Brier leads the way with plenty of support from others. Maxim Afinogenov, Christ Drury, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Derek Roy will all continue to provide difficulties for their opponents as they have done all season long.

Brian Campbell and the rest of the Sabres defense will have their hands full with Alexei Yashin, Ryan Smyth, and Miroslav Satan. However, they’ll be able to contain them more effectively than the Islanders will be able to contain the season’s top squad.

The Sabres will prove to be too much for the Islanders: Buffalo wins in five.

New Jersey (2) vs. Tampa Bay (7)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have had the Devils’ number all year and now they get the chance to play them in the playoffs, which isn’t necessarily a good thing.

While the Lightning took the season series three games to one, they must also realize that Martin Brodeur is a goalie that was built for the playoffs. Brodeur has been put in numerous pressure situations and it seems as though he has always been able to live up to expectations. He has won three Stanley Cups and dominated playoff competition in his career, while also posting a successful win-loss record against the Lightning in overall competition (24 wins, 13 losses, 5 ties, and 2 OT losses).

The Lightning will need its goaltending (Holmqvist/Denis) to be consistent if they want a chance at an upset. Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Ruslan Fedotenko will be pressured to carry the load for Tampa Bay and if they are unable to do so it will lead to a quick first round exit for the Bolts.

This series is a classic matchup of a premier offensive team going up against a premier defensive team and because of the fact that defense tends to overcome in the playoffs, I’m giving the edge to the Devils.

Brodeur shuts down Tampa’s offense and New Jersey wins in 6.

Atlanta (3) vs. New York Rangers (6)

The New York Rangers couldn’t be happier.

What could have been a first-round matchup against the New Jersey Devils turned out being a series with the Atlanta Thrashers. No offense to Atlanta, but they simply aren’t as intimidating as the Devils come playoff time.

The Thrashers offense, led by Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk, carried them to the South East division throne and into the playoffs for the first time since Atlanta was awarded a franchise in 1997. Kari Lehtonen has had a solid season and helped Atlanta take the season series with the Rangers 3-1.

The Rangers, however, have peaked at just the right time. They are 13-3-4 over their last 20 games and Lundqvist is 8-1-1 in the last 10 games that he has started. Jaromir Jagr, meanwhile, has tallied 9 points over the final five games of the season and the Rangers, unlike last year, seem to be healthy and ready to do some damage.

While this series could easily go either way…

… I’m going with the red-hot Rangers: New York in 6.

Ottawa (4) vs. Pittsburgh (5)

The Penguins were able to win the season series 3-1, with two shootout victories. The question is not on how well they performed in the season, however, but whether or not their lack of playoff experience will be costly.

Sidney Crosby and his Pittsburgh teammates hope to follow the example set by a young Edmonton team in the 1980’s. Crosby has been compared to Wayne Gretzky his whole career and he, after his second NHL season, finally has the chance to show what he’s worth in the playoffs.

And he’ll have lots of help. With Crosby leading the way many tend to forget the rest of the young talent on this Penguins roster. Evgeni Malkin is having a fantastic rookie year and is often said to be the Pens player that is most reminiscent of Mario Lemieux. Jordan Staal and Ryan Malone have also chipped in nicely offensively while the defense is led by young Ryan Whitney and veteran Sergei Gonchar. 22-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury will be between the pipes for his inaugural playoff series and will be looking to do his best against the Ottawa Senators.

The Senators, though tied at 105 points with the Penguins, earn home-ice advantage because of the fact that they won one more game than their first-round opponent.

Many boast of the fact that the Penguins have the third best offensive team in the NHL, however, the Senators have a potent offense of their own — second in the league — with 11 goals more than the Pens over the duration of the season.

The pressure is on the experienced and favored Senators, who are entering their 10th straight playoff appearance. Ray Emery is 5-5 in the NHL playoffs and will be counted on to stop the mighty Pens attack. In an offensive matchup, everything will come down to goaltending.

And I believe Marc-Andre Fleury will prove the difference: Pittsburgh in 7.

Western Conference

Detroit (1) vs. Calgary (8)

The Western Conference champions have been here many times before. This year however, they are geared up for it better than before.

The Wings brought in power forward Todd Bertuzzi to help an already dominating club. Henrik Zetterberg should be healthy for the playoffs and Pavel Datsyuk has been ever so consistent this season. Nicklas Lidstrom will be given the difficult task of shutting down Jarome Iginla, while Dominik Hasek will have to play up to his résumé. The last time Hasek was in the playoffs, 2002, he helped the Red Wings walk away with the Cup.

Last year, the Red Wings lost out to a hot goalie in Dwyane Roloson and this year they are going to face an even more difficult task: getting the puck past Miikka Kiprusoff. Kipper has willed the Flames into the playoffs for the third consecutive season after posting 40 wins with one game remaining.

If the Flames want a chance, they’ll need a physical edge on the Wings. Dion Phaneuf will be counted on to make a major impact. Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay will need help from Tony Amonte and the second line if they are going to have any offensive pressure at all.

Even if they do, however, I simply don’t think it will be enough. The Flames are the worst road team in the 2007 playoffs and they’ll have to face a sold out Hockeytown.

The Flames fizzle much like they have in the last week: Detroit in 5.

Anaheim (2) vs. Minnesota (7)

The Minnesota Wild won their final three games of the season and are hoping to carry this momentum into Anaheim as they begin their playoff series.

These two teams haven’t squared off in 2007, but now they will have all their focus on each other in this battle for who will enter into the second round and who will watch the rest of the playoff race from home.

The Anaheim Ducks are led by their dynamic defensive duo of Scott Neidermayer and Chris Pronger. JS Giguere has had a very solid season between the pipes, despite only playing 56 games, and will look to have another dominating playoff performance like the one he had in 2003. Teemu Selanne will be leading the Ducks’ offensive attack, helped in large by Andy McDonald and youngster Ryan Getzlaf.

The Wild may be the hotter team of late, but they remain the underdogs in this series. The thought across the league is that Niklas Backstrom will have to play like a brick wall in order for Minnesota to stand a chance.

Marian Gaborik has been playing extremely well over the last month and will look to Brian Rolston and Pavol Demitra for support. If the Wild offense can get going, they may make this a very interesting series. However, it hurts Minnesota to know that there are no shootouts in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Ducks overwhelm the surging Wild: Anaheim in 6.

Vancouver (3) vs. Dallas (6)

Roberto Luongo has been waiting six years and finally he will get his chance.

The Canucks goalie and candidate for the Vezina Trophy has always been known as the best goalie to never make the playoffs. Now he’ll be given an opportunity to make a name for himself where it matters most.

Marty Turco, on the other hand, has been given plenty of playoff chances, only to dash them away along with the hopes of Stars fans three years in a row. Turco’s playoff record stands at 8 wins and 14 losses with his only playoff series win coming against the Edmonton Oilers in 2003.

The Canucks will be led by Daniel and Henrik Sedin, the Swedish twins who have greatly improved their game over the last few years. Markus Naslund, playing most of the time on the second line, will have to step up in order for the Canucks to have a deeper arsenal in order to take the pressure off of the twins.

Two of the top three offensive producers on the Dallas roster are defensemen, and this could cause difficulties for the Stars come playoff time. Sergei Zubov and Philippe Boucher will be counted on for both defensive pressure and offensive attacks, an overwhelming role for two players to burden.

During the regular season these teams split the season series two games each, with the home team prevailing 2-1 in all four events. Both teams will continue to struggle with scoring, but Vancouver has home-ice advantage…

… and Luongo will step up in a big way: Vancouver in 6.

Nashville (4) vs. San Jose (5)

Last year, San Jose disposed easily of the Nashville Predators in the first round, winning the series in five games. This year, however, the Predators are looking for revenge.

Nashville has put together their best season ever, since entering the league in the 1998-99 season. However, they have struggled with injuries and mediocre play of late, going 2-3 over the last five and 5-7 over their final twelve.

San Jose, on the other hand, has won five of their final six games with their only loss coming in Saturday night’s overtime battle with the Canucks.

Joe Thornton has put together another dominant season, tallying 114 points, while Patrick Marleau, Jonathan Cheechoo, and Milan Michalek add to the offensive powers for the Sharks.

Evgeni Nabakov will be square off in goal against Tomas Vokoun with both teams having solid backup options if anything is to happen to their starters. Vesa Toskala and Chris Mason have each combine for only two less wins over the duration of the season than the starters in this series.

Both teams are extremely fast and very skilled. Peter Forsberg, a late season acquisition for the Predators, will be looking to be the difference maker.

However, the Sharks size will overcome: San Jose in 7.

—This article was originally published at Sports Central on April 9, 2007—